From Estallido to Far-Right Restoration: How Chile's Democratic Moment Turned Authoritarian

Six years after massive social mobilizations challenged Chile’s neoliberal order, the far-right has returned to power—not by abandoning authoritarian legacies, but by rearticulating them. This materialized on December 14, 2025, when Chile elected José Antonio Kast as the new president for the 2026–2030 period to replace the current left-wing leader, Gabriel Boric.

This transition occurs shortly after the phenomenon known as the Estallido Social—a massive, intense, and protracted social mobilization that shook Chile in 2019, questioned the neoliberal model implemented by the Pinochet dictatorship (1973–1990), and signified a profound crisis of hegemony. In a remarkably short time, Chile shifted from anti-systemic protests demanding structural changes to the rise—backed by broad popular support—of a political figure deeply rooted in far-right authoritarian traditions.

In this process, the Chilean´s right has intensified pre-existing commitments to conservatism and authoritarian neoliberalism, particularly under Kast's leadership. In contrast to the moderate restoration of Sebastián Piñera's government (2018–2022) and the "pure" radicalization seen in Javier Milei’s Argentina, Kast's project represents a radicalized restoration: the pursuit of hegemonic recovery by intensifying the Pinochet dictatorship's (1973–1990) ideological legacy, adopting exclusionary rhetoric, and abandoning the institutional pragmatism of previous right-wing parties.

José Antonio Kast was the candidate who best rearticulated the authoritarian legacy of the Chilean right as a response to the crisis of hegemony.

The results from December 14 reveal the deeper reorganization of the Chilean right since the return to democracy in 1990. Kast's victory demonstrates that the winner of this reorganization was not the candidate who most moderated their positions or took the most extreme stances, but the one who best rearticulated the authoritarian legacy of the Chilean right as a response to the crisis of hegemony triggered by the Estallido. Accordingly, the new Chilean far-right has found in the Estallido a focal point for radicalization, resulting in a dramatic transformation exacerbated by the political consequences of the 2019 protests and the subsequent constitutional reform process.

Authoritarian Neoliberalism and the Genesis of the New Chilean Right

Authoritarian neoliberalism took root among Chile’s right-wing political elites during the dictatorship that followed the 1973 overthrow of President Salvador Allende’s socialist government (1970-1973). This restructuring involved increasing the role of the private sector in social services, strengthening financial and business sectors, reducing state spending, deregulation, and liberalization of the economy.

These developments meant that Chile transitioned from having the first democratically elected socialist government in the world and the strongest labor movement in Latin America to becoming the first country to implement—without opposition—large-scale neoliberal policies, thus being labeled as the laboratory and cradle of neoliberalism. This transformation not only implied a restructuring of the economic system but also a genuine political counter-revolution that redirected the promise of the “Chilean path to socialism” toward a society focused on meritocracy and individual success. While the dictatorship's military power was pivotal, three pillars sustained Chile's transformations: ideas establishing a neoliberal cultural hegemony, the economic interests of local and external elites, and institutions that limit systemic change (Madariaga, 2020)
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Chile’s “protected democracy” institutionalized neoliberalism through authoritarian enclaves, ensuring the model’s continuity and a narrative of order. The 1980 Constitution, still in effect, remains the primary symbol of this pact; by restricting state intervention and insulating the market from substantial change, it safeguards elite dominance and the dictatorship's dual legacy of authoritarianism and neoliberalism (Martínez Mateo, 2021; Santander, 2024)
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As neoliberalism and authoritarianism also became a sociopolitical consensus even during the years of the transition to democracy in the 90s the defense of a hegemonic system that followed these guidelines was a priority for the main party of the Chilean right and defender of the dictatorial legacy, the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI). Founded in 1983 by the ideologue behind the 1980 Constitution, Jaime Guzmán, this party brought together neoliberal and conservative groups that participated in the dictatorship.

Kast has pursued an agenda that runs counter to progressivism, delivering strong anti-establishment speeches that prioritize security, immigration, and economic growth.

The UDI embodies the hegemony of the Chilean right in the past 40 years, as it politically led the dictatorship, installed neoliberalism in Chile, and has been its main defender during the “democratic transition.” Moreover, from 2001 to 2016, this party consistently became the largest in Chile in terms of both votes and representation.

The hegemony of the UDI cracked when, in 2016, José Antonio Kast, a long-time member of the UDI, left the party, accusing it of abandoning its ideological foundations. The next year, he ran for president as an independent, obtaining fourth place with about 8% of the vote. His agenda emphasized the importance of radicalizing positions in a new scenario where progressive forces would be applying an agenda contrary to conservative values. In 2019, he formed the far-right party Partido Republicano (PR), which advocates for a radical defense of the dictatorship's ideological pillars, calling for a return to the UDI's foundational principles.

In a short period of time, the PR and Kast have transitioned from emerging in an electoral context to dominating the national political agenda, successfully dislodging the UDI as the dominant force in the sector. They have pursued an agenda that runs counter to progressivism, delivering strong anti-establishment speeches that prioritize security, immigration, and economic growth.

Gremialismo: A Chilean Ideological Framework

Are the UDI—the party historically representative of the dictatorial legacy—and the PR—Kast's new far-right party—truly so different? Both share the same networks and political culture and have practically identical political principles, as they stem from the same doctrinal inspirations: Jaime Guzmán and the so-called gremialismo.

Gremialismo is a Chilean ideological structure developed in the 1960s by Jaime Guzmán, based on Catholic conservatism and anti-communism. This doctrine serves as the explicit ideological basis of the UDI and the PR, resting on two central principles: depoliticization and subsidiarity. First, it advocates for the depoliticization of the society´s "intermediate bodies" (the gremios, or guilds), which include diverse organizations such as universities, unions, and various civil society groups. Since these spaces should focus on fulfilling their specific interests, they must be free from ideological manipulation, such as that exercised by political parties.

Secondly, because each sector must fulfill its own purpose, the state should assume a subsidiary role, intervening only when individuals or sectors cannot act independently. This concept facilitated an extended ideological link between neoliberals and conservatives, providing grounds to advocate for a small state that does not interfere in market dynamics, except to guarantee property rights and the fulfillment of contracts.

The doctrinal convergence of political authoritarianism, economic neoliberalism, and social conservatism enables both parties -PR and UDI- to operate on shared ideological grounds. For instance, both defend the family as society's fundamental nucleus and an intrinsic value for the common good. They explicitly affirm the centrality of religion in public life while promoting the autonomy of intermediate bodies. Furthermore, they agree on the principles of a “social market economy” backed by strong institutions; consequently, their narratives share the same ideological foundations, inspirations, social ties, religious dogmas, and hierarchies.

However, while defending Guzmán and his Constitution remains a priority for both parties, the PR claims to be the true guardian of that legacy. The Chilean far-right seeks to intensify, rather than depart from, foundational gremialista commitments. This perspective clarifies Kast’s leadership: he accuses the UDI of institutional accommodation and programmatic flexibility while rallying his party around the same project through ideological rigidity and antagonistic mobilization.

Kast: The Ideological Purity of a Gremialista Heir

José Antonio Kast is not an outsider but a product of Chile’s right-wing elite networks, with deep biographical and institutional ties to the dictatorship. His brother, Michael Kast, was a prominent “Chicago Boy” who led Pinochet’s neoliberal transformation as Minister of Labor and Central Bank President. José Antonio socialized in the gremialista epicenter of PUC Law School, joining the UDI’s youth wing, Movimiento Gremial. A member of the Schönstatt movement (a Catholic lay organization emphasizing moral renewal and apostolic work), he emerged as a key youth supporter of the regime’s final years before serving as a UDI deputy for nearly two decades (2002–2018).

Kast embodies the fusion of religious conservatism and market orthodoxy, providing ideological coherence to Chilean gremialismo. Moreover, his trajectory and commitment foster a fluid relationship with both the country’s business elites and the UDI base. In this sense, his political path illustrates not a rupture with the establishment, but rather an impatience with its perceived ideological dilution.

Kast's political style reflects that of successful far-right leaders worldwide: he provides ideological coherence rooted in a right-wing authoritarian legacy.

As the UDI and the PR vie for the same electorate and historical legacy, Kast’s figure bridges the gap between them. Ideologically, both parties agree on the need to restore order following the crisis of the Estallido by invoking an idealized pre-crisis era. However, unlike the UDI, Kast’s charismatic influence has allowed the PR to adopt more disruptive and antagonistic methods to advance the same agenda while asserting greater ideological purity.

During the last campaign, Kast showed himself to be imperturbable and non-confrontational, distancing himself from the demeanor that had characterized him in previous elections. However, he positioned himself as the only leader capable of restoring order and stability in a Chile perceived as chaotic post-Estallido, while reaffirming the need to protect the ideological and institutional legacy of the dictatorship.

Kast's political style reflects that of successful far-right leaders worldwide: like them, he provides ideological coherence rooted in a right-wing authoritarian legacy. In Weberian terms, his image operates through charismatic authority, building the archetype of the “father figure” for the radicalization of his followers.

Kast's style consolidates the ideological purity of gremialismo and validates the PR's radicalization process while creating internal tension within the UDI. His trajectory—from UDI insider to its most effective competitor—demonstrates that in times of hegemonic crisis, personalist leadership grounded in ideological rigidity can outperform institutionalized parties that prioritize electoral pragmatism. In this sense, Kast provided an answer to the question on how to restore hegemony when moderation had failed to contain progressive challenges, paving the way for a far-right victory six years after the Estallido.

The Crisis of Hegemony of the Estallido

The Estallido emerged not from an acute economic collapse, but from the accumulated contradictions of four decades of neoliberal success. The protests, occurring in the absence of a relevant economic crisis, primarily targeted the political system's failures and advocated for economic justice. Despite varying analyses of its social motivations, the Estallido marked a profound and accelerated rupture in the country's socio-political landscape. At a micro-sociological level, the social mobilization—focused on criticizing social inequality and the lack of opportunities offered by neoliberal promises—reflects "the circle of detachment" (Araujo, 2022), referring to individuals' decisions to protect themselves from the excessive demands, systemic disappointments, and daily irritations of living under neoliberalism.

These efforts led to the 2020 referendum, in which 78.28% of voters approved the need for a new constitution. This process helped defuse the conflict while ensuring a diverse composition through mechanisms such as electoral quotas for independents and indigenous peoples. However, the constitutional process that emerged from the Estallido failed to consolidate a new hegemonic project. The proposed constitution—drafted by a democratically elected convention dominated by left-wing groups and independents—was decisively rejected in 2022, with 62% of the electorate voting against it.

The constitutional rejection was driven by four key factors: first, a perception of extremism regarding identity and social rights that alienated moderate voters; second, a coordinated right-wing mobilization that used disinformation to frame the proposal as a danger to private property; third, the demobilization of progressive movements as they shifted toward institutional governance; and finally, the declining approval of the Boric government—plagued by security and economic crises—which became inextricably linked to the constitutional failure.

Rather than just representing a popular sentiment embracing the status quo, the referendum's outcome reflected a rejection of a specific constitutional text amidst political polarization, disinformation, and the alienation of the left from its social base. Crucially, the underlying grievances that fueled the Estallido—inequality, privatized social services, and precarious livelihoods—remained unaddressed and continue to be relevant issues for Chilean society today. Consequently, the rejection created a political vacuum, delegitimizing the old order while failing to consolidate a new one, thereby opening a window of opportunity for far-right restoration.

The Estallido as a Focal Point for Right-Wing Radicalization

Following the rejection of the first referendum, a second constitutional process—dominated by an overwhelming right-wing majority led by the PR—defined this new phase. The new proposal not only reaffirmed the core principles of the 1980 Constitution but also diverged sharply from the first attempt by, for example, restricting abortion access and threatening indigenous rights. This process consolidated a far-right backlash that sought not only to restore order and defend its position but also to advance an agenda diametrically opposed to the Estallido.

This scenario reflects the complexity of right-wing mobilization, which extends beyond merely defending neoliberalism and the 1980 Constitution; it also involves confronting a crisis of hegemony, which has led these groups to explicitly radicalize their positions. However, the hegemonic crisis remains unresolved, as in 2023, the second text proposed was rejected by 55.78% of the electorate in the final constitutional referendum, leaving the 1980 Constitution largely intact despite widespread recognition of its illegitimacy.

This sequence of failures consolidated the perception that institutional change was impossible, redirecting political energy from transformative projects toward demands for order and security that came to define the political landscape in the post-Estallido era.

Today's right-wing mobilization involves confronting a crisis of hegemony, leading these groups to explicitly radicalize their positions.

The concept of Octubrismo (“Octoberism”) is central to understanding the discursive strategies that led to this new scenario. Coined and popularized in a pejorative sense by far-right politicians such as Kast, it serves to conflate the Estallido with its most radical expressions. Through this term, the right portrays the protests not as legitimate social mobilizations but as sources of violence, vandalism, and public disorder, thereby delegitimizing both the protesters' demands and their critique of the neoliberal model.

As a rhetorical and perlocutionary act of silencing, Octubrismo reframes the Estallido as an unnecessary and dangerous attempt at refoundation (Jerade, 2024), a label the right uses within a broader political cleavage to question structural transformation and delegitimize challenges to the existing order; this shift is empirically reflected in data showing that while 61.7% of respondents viewed the protests’ impact positively in 2020, by October 2022 that figure had dropped to 28.8%, with negative perceptions rising to 54.4% (Activa Research, 2022).

The Chilean crisis can be conceptualized using the Gramscian concept of the “interregnum”—a period where the old is dying and the new cannot be born—amid the generalized social mobilization of two sides in dispute. When progressive social movements enter a demobilization phase before institutional reforms consolidate, reactions can quickly transform a crisis of legitimacy into an opportunity for authoritarian-neoliberal expansion. This characterizes a new far-right that, while seeking a restoration, has radicalized its positions toward a horizon distinct from that of the social movements.

After the Estallido and the failed constitutional attempts, the Chilean right appears to have consolidated its role as the representative of anger and unease by redefining a discourse that combines the defense of free-market values with a conservative and authoritarian social order. Both the UDI and the PR have intensified their commitment to their longstanding ideologies and authoritarian heritage, adopting a more rigid and exclusionary stance than they held before the Estallido.

Why Did the Far-Right Win, and What Is at Stake After Kast’s Victory?

Six years after the Estallido, Chile confronts a paradox: despite a profound crisis of hegemony that challenged neoliberalism's legitimacy, no structural transformation has occurred. The 1980 Constitution remains in force, neoliberal economic policies continue largely unchanged, and privatized pensions, healthcare, and education persist. While the grievances that ignited the protests remain unresolved, the political landscape has transformed dramatically, with a weakened left increasingly distant from the working class and a far-right ascending to power.

Various hypotheses are currently discussed to understand the mechanisms that opened the window for far-right restoration. Among them are: the demobilization of left-wing forces; institutional failures that reinforced narratives portraying changes as generators of chaos; the impact of disinformation networks associating the constitutional process with disorder and radicalism; the introduction of compulsory voting in 2025, which added nearly five million new voters; the instrumentalization of migration, fueling xenophobic anxieties; and the concerning rise in crime rates coupled with the Boric government's inability to manage the security crisis.

Kast's triumph lies in leading the right by proposing a restoration of the lost status quo through authoritarian measures while keeping the neoliberal economic architecture intact.

However, the key to understanding the situation lies in differentiating between structural changes and shifts in the balance of forces. Rather than institutional or structural changes in Chilean society following the Estallido, what shifted was the balance of political power and the framing of the crisis itself: parties defending the dictatorial legacy managed to position themselves as the solution to a crisis they had originally provoked.

Kast's success is not measured solely by whether he managed to impose a conservative agenda. His triumph lies in leading the right by proposing a restoration of the lost status quo through authoritarian measures while keeping the neoliberal economic architecture intact. While the Estallido appealed to social rights, Kast—unmoved by the social pressure—offers order and security. While the left discusses a redistributive tax reform and social rights, Kast focuses on state reduction and migration control.

Paradoxically, this "radicalization" does not seek a break with traditional liberal democracy; instead, it operates within its margins to stifle the very possibilities that democracy allows. Kast's project is not an institutional rupture, but a strategic restoration: it seeks to impose an order so rigid that any demand for social rights or anti-systemic protests is effectively nullified. Ultimately, his efforts are directed towards consolidating a system where a form of society fundamentally different from neoliberalism is simply impossible to conceive.

References

Activa Research. (2022). Pulso Ciudadano 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1342939/chile-public-trust-institutions-organizations/

Araujo, K. (2022). The Circuit of Detachment in Chile. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009310697

Jerade, M. (2024). José Medina, The Epistemology of Protest. Silencing, Epistemic Activism, and the Communicative Life of Resistance. Crítica (México D. F. En Línea), 56(168), 81–87. https://doi.org/10.22201/iifs.18704905e.2024.1582

Madariaga, A. (2020). The three pillars of neoliberalism: Chile’s economic policy trajectory in comparative perspective. Contemporary Politics, 26(3), 308–329. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2020.1735021

Martínez Mateo, M. (2021). Autoritärer Neoliberalismus und Verfassungsgebung in Chile. Überlegungen zum Verhältnis von Diktatur und Rechtsstaat. In Ch. Schmidt & B. Zabel (Eds.), Politik im Rechtsstaat (1st ed.).

Santander, L. (2024). El neoliberalismo autoritario en la rearticulación discursiva de la derecha post Estallido Social. Propuestas Críticas En Trabajo Social-Critical Proposals in Social Work, 4(8). https://doi.org/10.5354/2735-6620.2024.74692